UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — Rising sea levels caused by a warming climate threaten greater future storm damage to New York City, but the paths of stronger future storms may shift offshore, changing the coastal risk for the city, according to a team of climate scientists.

"If we cause large sea-level rise, that dominates future risks, but if we could prevent sea-level rise and just have the storm surge to worry about, our projections show little change in coastal risk from today during most years," said Michael E. Mann, distinguished professor of meteorology and atmospheric science and director of Penn State's Earth System Science Center. "While those storms that strike New York City might be bigger and stronger, there may be fewer of them as changing storm tracks increasingly steer the storms away from NYC and toward other regions."

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Sea-level rise, not stronger storm surge, will cause future NYC flooding